It has been one week for the reason that Texas Rangers received the primary World Sequence in franchise historical past and we’re nonetheless ready for the primary main transfer of the 2023-24 MLB offseason. That is common although. Baseball’s offseason is a marathon, not a dash, very similar to the season itself. Issues — huge issues — will occur quickly sufficient. Don’t be concerned.
Earlier than these huge issues occur, let’s make some daring predictions for the recent range season, lets? We will. Let’s get to ’em.
1. Ohtani leaves the Angels and indicators with …
… the Dodgers. OK, so perhaps this is not precisely daring seeing how the Dodgers have lengthy been thought of the frontrunner to signal Shohei Ohtani, however I do not wish to checklist one other workforce right here once I do not consider it. I believe Ohtani goes to the Dodgers. I will make this prediction daring by saying it is going to be a 13-year, $500 million contract. Ohtani turns 30 in July and 13 years is a very long time for any participant, however we have seen Los Angeles do that earlier than. They gave Mookie Betts a 12-year contract at age 28 as a result of stretching the contract out over so a few years lowered the common annual worth, and thus the aggressive steadiness tax cost. Give Ohtani 10 years and $500 million, and it is a $50 million a 12 months CBT cost. Stretch the $500 million out over 13 years and it is a extra palatable $38.46 million per 12 months. Additionally, like Betts, Ohtani’s contract will embrace deferrals that decrease the current day worth (and thus CBT cost) even additional. It has been foretold.Â
2. The Padres commerce Soto …
… to the Yankees. San Diego is planning to cut back payroll to $200 million subsequent 12 months they usually do not completely should commerce Juan Soto to perform that, although transport him out could be probably the most easy strategy to cut back payroll whereas including a number of younger (and low-cost) gamers to the group. The Yankees are coming off their worst season in three a long time and appear poised to do one thing huge this offseason. Soto matches their wants completely as a left-handed hitting outfielder with energy, endurance, and swagger. A package deal headlined by Michael King and prime pitching prospect Drew Thorpe will head to San Diego and the Yankees will strive like loopy to signal Soto to an extension, however he’ll finally head out into free company subsequent winter after one other 30-homer, .400 on-base season in 2024.
3. Yamamoto will be a part of the opposite New York workforce
The Mets have accomplished the “huge cash, short-term contract” factor with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander the final two years to less-than-desirable outcomes. Now it is time to spend huge long-term on a prime-aged participant. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, embellished ace of the Orix Buffaloes in Japan, might be posted for MLB groups this offseason and he turned solely 25 in August. He is younger and he has the potential to pitch at or close to the entrance of a rotation for a very long time. The Mets struck gold with Kodai Senga final offseason and Yamamoto is 5 years youthful and extra extremely regarded than Senga. Given his age, the bidding warfare might be fierce — the Mets should outbid the Dodgers and Yankees, amongst others — so anticipate a contract within the eight-year, $220 million vary.
4. The Giants lastly get their star
That star: Jung-Hoo Lee, heart fielder for the Kiwoom Heroes in Korea. Like Yamamoto, Lee is just 25, so whichever groups indicators him will purchase peak years in bulk. Lee authored a .318/.406/.455 batting line in 86 video games earlier than struggling a season-ending ankle damage this summer season. Final 12 months, he was named league MVP after hitting .349/.421/.575 with a career-high 23 homers and greater than twice as many walks (66) as strikeouts (32). He is additionally a gifted defender. The Giants have had a tough time signing stars and Lee matches their wants so nicely. He can go get it in heart area and his contact-over-power strategy is well-suited for spacious Oracle Park. I’ll say Lee will get a six-year, $90 million contract with an choose out after the fourth 12 months.
5. Bellinger returns to the Cubs
Typically a participant and a workforce match up so nicely that it is smart to proceed the connection. Cody Bellinger had a resurgent 2023 season with the Cubs, one that ought to earn him MVP votes, and he might be one of the crucial wanted free brokers as a 28-year-old influence participant at an up-the-middle place. The Cubs are on the rise they usually have already got a superb younger heart fielder in Pete Crow-Armstrong, however there is no rule towards having two heart field-caliber defenders on the sector on the identical time. Bellinger re-signs — let’s name it seven years and $180 million — and Chicago’s pitchers get to get pleasure from watching all their fly balls flip into outs the subsequent few years.
6. The Cardinals land two prime starters
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak stated he desires three starters this offseason, although nabbing a trio of prime pitchers might be tough. I do assume St. Louis will land two huge identify starters although, one by way of commerce and one by way of free company: Shane Bieber and Aaron Nola. Bieber comes over from the Guardians in a swap that sends Tyler O’Neill and a prospect the opposite approach, and Nola indicators a six-year, $150 million contract. That can occur after the Cardinals make a spirited run at Yamamoto, however finally are unable to hold with the Dodgers and Mets and Yankees within the bidding warfare. Bieber and Nola are a reasonably good Plan B although.
7. Votto joins his hometown workforce
This previous weekend the Reds declined their $20 million membership possibility for Joey Votto, a transfer that was totally anticipated, and the workforce’s assertion made it fairly clear a) they won’t pursue a reunion at a decrease wage, and b) Votto doesn’t intend to retire simply but. Votto turned 40 in September and he hasn’t carried out nicely the final two years, although he additionally performed via shoulder hassle, together with season-ending surgical procedure in August 2022. That stated, he is a hitting savant who’s nearly as good a guess as anybody to make changes and get on monitor. Votto grew up in Toronto and the Blue Jays have a transparent want for a lefty hitting DH, plus they may use some good clubhouse vibes. He would supply all of that for his hometown workforce. One 12 months and $1 million lands Votto again house in Toronto.
8. The Orioles spend lower than $50 million on free brokers
All of us agree the Orioles ought to spend this offseason, proper? They received 101 video games and went to the postseason this 12 months, they usually had the second-lowest payroll in baseball. Baltimore has an enviable younger (and low-cost) core, although in addition they badly want rotation assist, so they need to spend, sure? Alas and alack, proprietor John Angeles and GM Mike Elias have proven little inclination to spend, with Angelos even saying they must elevate costs considerably to afford extensions for his or her younger gamers. The O’s ought to spend this offseason, however I predict they won’t, comparatively talking. They’ll spend lower than $50 million on free brokers. That is $50 million complete, over nevertheless a few years. I do not imply they’ll decline so as to add $50 million to payroll in 2024.
9. Three prime starters re-sign with their workforce
These starters: Sonny Grey again to the Twins, Jordan Montgomery again to the Rangers, and Eduardo Rodriguez again to the Tigers. Grey will get two years and $50 million, Montgomery will get 5 years and $125 million, and Rodriguez will get 5 years and $100 million. Grey and Rodriguez appear snug with their groups — Rodriguez vetoed a commerce to the Dodgers on the deadline to stick with Detroit, keep in mind — and can reup. As for Montgomery, World Sequence winners re-sign their very own free brokers at a disproportionate fee, although he additionally matches very well with what Texas wants (a dependable innings man in a rotation heavy on damage threat). The Rangers are in it to win it once more in 2024, and a reunion is smart for each side. This free-agent class is a bit lame and it’ll get a bit lamer when these three prime starters determine to return to their previous stomping grounds.
10. The Astros will change Dusty with a well-known face
Brad Ausmus, you are wanted again in Houston. Corridor of Famer Jeff Bagwell, who’s listed on the Astros’ masthead as a senior advisor to possession and baseball operations, has a loud voice within the entrance workplace. He reportedly spearheaded the trouble to signal José Abreu final offseason. This offseason, I am boldly predicting Bagwell will persuade proprietor Jim Crane to rent longtime Astros catcher Brad Ausmus to take over as supervisor following Dusty Baker’s retirement. Ausmus has managerial expertise and he was teammates with Bagwell from 1997-98 and 2001-05. Bagwell has Crane’s ear and our final daring prediction has him utilizing his affect to get his former teammate within the supervisor’s chair.
