Major League Baseball’s trade deadline passed on Tuesday night, doing so with a whimper instead of a bang. The biggest last-minute deal saw the Los Angeles Dodgers obtain Jack Flaherty from the Detroit Tigers. Otherwise? There was a noticeable lack of big names on the move as Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal, probably the two best starting pitchers who seemed to have a realistic shot at being traded, remained in place.
There was no Max Scherzer or Yu Darvish moment. No Juan Soto or Josh Hader drama. There were trades, plenty of them, but they seldom featured starpower — either on the big-league or minor-league front. If, as a result, you found the deadline to be a wee bit boring … well, you weren’t alone in that respect. Even front office sources who spoke to CBS Sports in the aftermath were quick to comment on the lackluster deadline.
Those same sources were quick to offer their theories for why that was, too. With that in mind, here are three proposed reasons why this year’s deadline fell flat.Â
1. Crowded playoff fields
Whenever MLB expands the postseason (and it’s done so a couple times over the last decade-plus), the hope is always that the bubble teams will try harder to make the playoffs. In turn, that results in a more active, frenzied deadline. In practice, this year’s crowded playoff races likely had a chilling effect on movement.
As of Wednesday morning, nine American League teams were either in or were within five games of a spot; the same was true for 10 National League clubs. That means only a third of the league is really “out” of the playoff picture. With only so many true sellers, there was an expectation that a few bubble teams might swing that way, as a means of taking advantage of the unbalanced marketplace.
Only one team did that in, in our opinion: the Tampa Bay Rays. Other candidates to pull the trick, like the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs, mostly stood pat. Heck, you can argue that the Cubs made a “buy” move when they obtained Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes in exchange for three players.
Sellers tend to be sellers for a reason: their teams aren’t good, and likely aren’t loaded with big-name stars. The Chicago White Sox were something of an exception, but even they didn’t move left-hander Garrett Crochet or outfielder Luis Robert Jr. Factor in how the Detroit Tigers held true to our pre-deadline intel by not moving Tarik Skubal, and you have a recipe for a deadline without many true stars changing hands.
2. Pensive GMs
To some, a stacked playoff field means that the deadline is an opportunity to separate oneself from the pack. To the current crop of general managers, it was an excuse to mostly do nothing of consequence.Â
Outside of San Diego Padres point guard A.J. Preller — whose moves were met with the usual mix of scrutiny and admiration — most of the bubble GMs passed on moving from the upper portions of their systems. A few division leaders did “splurge,” relatively: Houston’s Dana Brown caught public flak for the Yusei Kikuchi trade, while Los Angeles’ Brandon Gomes traded the prospect that several sources identified as the best one moved: powerful switch-hitting catcher (at least for now) Thayron Liranzo.
Otherwise, teams were impossibly reluctant to move anyone who could be charitably described as a top prospect. Baseball America noted that not a single one of their top 100 prospects was moved at the deadline. Meanwhile, one talent evaluator suggested to us that almost every prospect moved topped out as a grade-45 — the scouty way of saying that they’re not projected to be even a league-average talent.
One trend we’ll note here: some teams were quick to deal 2023 draftees with a history of command woes who have had some success at the Low-A level — that includes George Klassen, Brody Hopkins, and Ty Johnson. The messiness of the minor leagues, and especially the Low-A level, means those players’ performance might not mean as much as they would have a decade ago. We’ll have to wait and see if their improvements are genuine, or if teams were taken by what amounts to a sleight of hand trick.Â
3. Poor timing
We’ll conclude by pointing out that there was poor timing at play, too. Crochet’s apparent contract demands weren’t reported until late in the process, leaving teams with less time to seek out information and draw up gameplans. (That includes the White Sox, who were said to be caught off guard by the development.)
Elsewhere, the Oakland Athletics traded one cost-controlled reliever, in Lucas Erceg, but held onto Mason Miller. Teams had their concerns about Miller’s durability, and it probably didn’t help that he broke his pinkie just ahead of the deadline. (Players who are on the injured list are allowed to be traded — and a few were, including new Pittsburgh Pirates infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa — but it complicates matters.)
Add it all together, and you have the makings of a midsummer snoozer. Here’s hoping that everyone’s decision to play it safe will pay off in the form of an exciting stretch run.
