After two thrilling rounds of the 2024 NBA playoffs, we have reached the ultimate 4 groups vying for the title.
The defending champion Denver Nuggets? Gone, bounced by the Minnesota Timberwolves after a wild second-half comeback in Recreation 7.
The Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, the highest seed within the Western Convention? Eradicated by the Dallas Mavericks, whose commerce deadline makeover created a harmful championship contender round superstars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
After which there’s the East bracket, that includes a matchup few might have predicted heading into the season: the league-leading Boston Celtics in opposition to the underdog Indiana Pacers, who wanted a Recreation 7 win inside Madison Sq. Backyard to succeed in their first convention finals since 2014. The Celtics, in the meantime, are right here for the sixth time in eight seasons.
Forward of every collection’ Recreation 1 — Celtics-Pacers begins Tuesday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) and Wolves-Mavs ideas Wednesday (8:30 p.m. ET on TNT) — here is a take a look at the components that can decide which contenders will advance to subsequent month’s NBA Finals.
MORE: NBA playoff schedules and information | Offseason guides
How the Wolves and Mavericks received right here
Minnesota swept the Phoenix Suns out of the primary spherical, taking down one of many preseason favorites to win the championship. Then, within the convention semifinals, it ousted the defending champs within the Denver Nuggets in an epic seven-game collection. Anthony Edwards has been elegant, averaging 28.9 factors on 50.4% taking pictures (39.8% from 3), 6.2 rebounds and 5.9 assists — all a tick above his numbers within the common season, his finest since being drafted No. 1 in 2020.
Minnesota’s collection win in opposition to Denver was removed from a one-man present, nevertheless. The Wolves rallied from down by 20 factors in Recreation 7 with six gamers scoring in double figures and staunch defensive performances from Karl-Anthony Cities, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels and Edwards, who has mentioned his aim is to turn into one of the best participant within the league on each side of the ball.
Wolves overcome 20-point deficit to eradicate defending champ Nuggets in Recreation 7
After being down 20 factors within the second half, the Timberwolves, led by Anthony Edwards, storm again to stun the Nuggets in Recreation 7 to maneuver on to the Western Convention finals.
In Dallas, the star energy of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving made a deep playoff run a chance, however the Mavericks’ protection and function gamers keyed the Mavs’ run by way of the primary two rounds. The Mavs, who had the league’s stingiest protection within the remaining 20 video games of the common season, have held foes to 101 or fewer factors in six of their eight playoff wins. Forwards P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones, the Mavs’ finest on-ball defenders, had clutch taking pictures performances to make the top-seeded Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder pay for loading up in opposition to Dallas’ star duo.
Doncic has struggled by his requirements whereas coping with a sprained proper knee, however he completed the West semifinals sturdy, averaging a 30-point triple-double on .568/.529/.900 taking pictures splits up to now two video games.
— Tim MacMahon and Dave McMenamin
Are Edwards and the younger Wolves prepared for the second?
Can a crew led by a 22-year-old star in Edwards be prepared to interrupt by way of with an NBA Finals look so quickly? The Wolves’ West finals foe went by way of an analogous ascension two years in the past when Doncic — simply 23 on the time — led them to the convention finals, the place they misplaced to the more-seasoned Golden State Warriors in 5 video games.
The Mavs took their lumps and reloaded, buying and selling for a former champion in Irving final yr and including Washington and Daniel Gafford on the deadline this yr. When requested after the Denver collection if the “Timberpups” wanted to take a number of extra postseason lumps earlier than profitable a title, Minnesota’s leaders argued they’ve already handled sufficient disappointment.
“We misplaced final yr,” Cities mentioned through the postgame information convention. Edwards, sitting to Cities’ proper, chimed in: “We misplaced the final two years. Goddamn, what number of instances we received to lose? How a lot you need us to lose?”
If there’s one attribute that defines Edwards, it is his unwavering confidence. So, the Wolves guard rejecting some predetermined timeline a participant should endure to win a hoop comes as no shock. The Wolves confirmed vulnerability in opposition to the Nuggets, dropping Video games 3, 4 and 5 after going up 2-0 and generally dropping their composure in these defeats. Nonetheless, the resolve they confirmed by profitable Recreation 6 by 45 factors and by no means giving up in Recreation 7 may very well be proof sufficient that this crew’s time is now.
— McMenamin
How will Dallas dimension up in opposition to the jumbo Timberwolves?
Upgrading the middle rotation performed a large function within the Mavs rebounding from final yr’s lottery end to make a run to the West finals. Basic supervisor Nico Harrison added Dereck Full of life II within the draft and Gafford on the commerce deadline, giving the Mavs a tag crew of energetic lob threats and rim protectors. They’re going to have an enormous problem in entrance of them this collection in opposition to a Minnesota crew that begins two 7-footers in four-time Defensive Participant of the Yr Rudy Gobert and All-Star Karl-Anthony Cities.
Each Dallas bigs have made main contributions. Full of life, specifically, was a pressure in opposition to the Thunder, when he had one of the best plus-minus within the collection (plus-71) by a large margin.
Mavs advance to WCF behind Luka’s 29-point triple-double
The Mavericks take down the Thunder and keep away from Recreation 7 to advance to the Western Convention finals behind Luka Doncic’s stellar triple-double.
“It is easy to say that he ought to begin,” coach Jason Kidd mentioned with out prompting after Recreation 6. “However he is taking part in his function for us, and that is coming off the bench and giving us power and ending within the paint.”
It is unsure if stretch massive man Maxi Kleber will have the ability to return from his proper shoulder damage at any level throughout this collection. He has begun fundamental basketball exercise, akin to type taking pictures from brief vary and defensive slides, and is scheduled to be reevaluated later this week.
Kleber unlocks the Mavs’ lineup versatility. He offers Kidd the choice of taking part in massive with Kleber at energy ahead alongside one of many facilities or small with a five-out offense that would pull Gobert away from the paint, the latter of which Dallas employed efficiently in a 2022 collection win over Gobert’s Jazz.
— MacMahon
Matchup to look at: An elite battle on the perimeter
It is the league’s highest-scoring tandem in opposition to one among its finest pairs of perimeter defenders. Edwards already confirmed the Timberwolves’ hand, declaring in his post-Recreation 7 interview that his matchup can be Irving, that means McDaniels would be the major defender on Doncic.
The smothering protection of McDaniels and Edwards factored into one of the vital memorable moments of the Mavs’ stumble into the lottery final season. Down three within the remaining seconds of Irving’s Mavs house debut, Irving and Doncic handed the ball forwards and backwards, unable to get an honest look, earlier than Irving coughed up a turnover — a scene that foreshadowed Dallas’ disappointing end.
However Irving and Doncic mixed for 69 factors in that loss and matched that whole in a Jan. 7 win over the Wolves, which was the one event they each performed in 4 conferences in opposition to Minnesota this season.
— MacMahon
Collection wild card: The Wolves different defensive menace
After the ultimate query had been requested and answered in Edwards’ and Cities’ joint Recreation 7 information convention, Edwards remained on the dais for a few minutes to shout out McDaniels, calling him the Wolves’ postseason MVP up to now.
The 6-9 ahead was essential in ending off the Nuggets, averaging 22 factors on a 75% taking pictures clip over the ultimate two video games whereas additionally taking part in the kind of protection that prompted Nikola Jokic to say that Minnesota has two Defensive Participant of the Yr-level gamers in McDaniels and Gobert.
For all of the discuss Edwards’ age, McDaniels is simply 23 himself and shall be tasked with stopping a basketball wizard in Doncic. His efficiency might very nicely swing the collection. McDaniels displayed a refreshing honesty within the convention semifinals when assessing his protection, admitting he wanted to “cease disrespecting” Aaron Gordon by permitting the Nuggets ahead to take open photographs in Denver’s wins and, within the closeout sport, lamenting that he “type of let Jamal [Murray] get away from me” at instances. Like the remainder of his crew, McDaniels sounds intent on competing nicely into June.
“It ain’t the championship, so we nonetheless received to maintain taking part in,” McDaniels mentioned Sunday. “Nevertheless it’s good to beat the defending champs. It reveals how good we might be.”
— McMenamin
Stat that would swing the collection: Energy vs. power on the rim
Since Feb. 10, when Gafford and Washington made their crew debuts, the Mavericks ranked second within the NBA in subject aim proportion on layups and dunks, in response to Second Spectrum.
The Timberwolves, for his or her half, allowed the league’s lowest subject aim proportion on layups and dunks for the whole season.
— Matt Williams
How the Celtics and Pacers received right here
Boston has comfortably run by way of the opening two rounds of the playoffs. The Celtics dispatched the Miami Warmth in 5 video games as Jimmy Butler missed the collection with a knee damage, and solely a historic taking pictures efficiency by Miami in Recreation 2 prevented a sweep.
The Celtics coughed up one other Recreation 2 loss at house to Cleveland, however Donovan Mitchell’s exit with a calf damage after Recreation 3 turned that collection into one other five-game triumph.
Tim Legler: The Celtics should get it accomplished this yr
Tim Legler explains the quantity of stress on the Celtics to win a title this season.
Indiana, in the meantime, has reached this level with a breakneck offensive tempo led by Haliburton. However there’s a lot extra to the league’s second-rated offense. Siakam assaults relentlessly and provides the younger membership some much-needed playoff expertise on the high of the rotation, whereas backup level guard T.J. McConnell is integral to arguably the NBA’s finest bench due to his underrated midrange jumper and his capability to hound opposing gamers for 94 toes.
Pundits will inevitably level to Indiana’s first two playoff opponents and cite accidents to the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard and the New York Knicks’ Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, amongst others. However the Pacers have sufficient younger expertise — particularly on offense — to turn into a perennial participant within the East’s playoff image.
— Tim Bontemps and Chris Herring
Porzingis’ availability is Boston’s greatest unknown
The 7-foot-3 heart, acquired by the Celtics through the offseason to present them a special look in opposition to switching defenses within the playoffs, has been sidelined with a calf damage since Recreation 5 in opposition to Miami. He has slowly begun ramping up his exercise over the previous couple of weeks however is anticipated to overlook not less than the primary two video games of this collection, sources informed ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski on Friday.
Porzingis is an elite rim-protector and 3-point shooter who recorded profession highs in subject aim proportion (52%) and efficient subject aim proportion (59%) this season and allowed simply 44.3% taking pictures within the paint, second finest amongst gamers to contest not less than 300 photographs this season, in response to Second Spectrum monitoring knowledge.
— Bontemps
Can Indiana’s protection afford to double Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown?
In not seeing the Bucks or Knicks at full power, Indiana was typically in a position to keep away from having to defend a number of stars directly. Due to that, the Pacers have been in a position to throw a number of defenders at Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, simply as they have been in a position to throw swarms at Damian Lillard within the first spherical.
The query now’s whether or not Indiana can defend the high-powered Celtics nicely sufficient. If the Pacers strive single protection in opposition to Boston’s famous person wings, the Celtics might dominate the free throw battle. No crew within the league despatched opponents to the road at a better price than Indiana this season.
Doubling might show simply as dangerous. The Celtics took and hit extra 3-pointers than some other crew. Nonetheless, the Pacers surrendered fewer makes an attempt and makes than some other crew within the league through the common season.
— Herring
Matchup to look at: Haliburton vs. Boston’s stingy backcourt
To have an opportunity on this collection, Indiana will want elite offensive manufacturing from its star level guard in opposition to arguably the league’s finest defensive backcourt in Jrue Vacation and Derrick White.
The Pacers received such a efficiency throughout their in-season match victory in opposition to Boston on Dec. 4, when Haliburton had 26 factors with 5 3-pointers, 13 assists and 10 rebounds to advance to the IST semifinals in Las Vegas.
Perk tells McAfee the Pacers have an opportunity in opposition to the Celtics
Kendrick Perkins breaks down how the Pacers can provide the Celtics a aggressive Japanese Convention finals collection.
Vacation and White, nevertheless, are each lengthy and rangy sufficient to present Haliburton loads of bother all through the collection. Boston’s duo is coming off a Recreation 5 victory during which it helped maintain Cleveland guards Darius Garland and Max Strus to a mixed 23 factors on 7-for-27 taking pictures.
Indiana’s turbocharged offense is constructed across the scoring and playmaking of Haliburton. Vacation and White current the hardest problem but.
— Bontemps
Collection wild card: The rebounding battle
If the Pacers’ protection is unfold skinny — as a result of Indiana opts to double-team or resulting from Boston’s capability to house the ground with shooters — the query of rebounding may very well be important, simply because it was within the convention semifinals between New York and Indiana.
In Recreation 5 of that collection, throughout which the Knicks began 6-1 guard Miles McBride over 6-8 ahead Valuable Achiuwa, Indiana struggled defending Brunson. When the Pacers sprinted at him, he dumped the ball to McBride, who served as a screener and launch valve on offense.
Boston could have comparable counters, ones which can be probably extra environment friendly than New York’s. The Pacers, who struggled mightily at instances to maintain the Knicks off the offensive glass, may need that drawback in opposition to the Celtics, too. Indiana ranked twenty sixth in defensive rebound price through the common season. By halftime of that Recreation 5, the Knicks had extra offensive rebounds than the Pacers had whole rebounds.
— Herring
Stat that would outline the collection: Factors!
The Celtics and Pacers ranked first and second in offensive effectivity this season, however the East finalists received there in dramatically alternative ways: Boston led the NBA in made 3-pointers, whereas Indiana led the league in paint factors.
That is the sixth playoff collection since 1998 to characteristic the highest crew in made 3s in opposition to the highest crew in paint factors, and it is the primary in a convention finals or later for the reason that 2000 NBA Finals between the Pacers and Los Angeles Lakers. Up to now 5 such conferences, the crew that led the league in paint factors received three of them.
— Williams
