A possible Western Convention play-in event preview unfolded Tuesday evening because the Golden State Warriors traveled to Crypto.com Area to tackle the Los Angeles Lakers of their closing house recreation of the season.
This was the fourth time these two groups have confronted off this season, with the Warriors claiming the ultimate regular-season matchup 134-120. The Warriors at the moment are a half-game behind the Lakers with three video games left.
However these two Western Convention foes are not any strangers to high-stakes video games, and with the common season wrapping up Sunday and the play-in event on the horizon, all eyes can be turned towards this epic potential postseason battle.
From matchup X-factors to playoff ceilings, NBA insiders Kevin Pelton, Ramona Shelburne and Bobby Marks reply the largest questions off tonight’s recreation as Stephen Curry and LeBron James attempt to lead their groups to the 2023-24 NBA playoffs.
1. What is the greatest lesson to take from Tuesday’s recreation?
Ramona Shelburne: The Lakers cannot cease anybody with out Anthony Davis in the course of their protection. The Warriors put up 70 factors within the first half, 104 by way of three quarters and completed with 134, attending to the rim seemingly at will with out the specter of Davis on the again line. The identical factor occurred Sunday in opposition to Minnesota when Davis went out with an eye fixed harm. He is been remarkably sturdy this season, however it has actually damage the Lakers to not have him these previous two video games as they battle to remain out of subsequent week’s 9/10 play-in recreation.
Bobby Marks: No Davis and no probability. As Ramona talked about, the Lakers’ protection was a revolving door with out Davis on the court docket. After profitable eight of their 9 video games heading into Sunday, the Lakers have now dropped two in a row and any possibilities of getting out of the play-in are slim. The opposite takeaway is to not low cost Golden State in a playoff-type surroundings. The Warriors would nonetheless must beat the Lakers and both the Suns or Kings if the season ended at the moment simply to achieve the primary spherical. However the Warriors performed with a way of urgency, evidenced by their veterans (Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Inexperienced) scoring a mixed 82 factors.
Kevin Pelton: Golden State may be very a lot alive to keep away from the tenth seed within the West play-in event and must win two video games on the highway simply to make the playoffs. Because of a 3-1 collection win over the Lakers, the Warriors now maintain the head-to-head tiebreaker and are even within the loss column, which means they will doubtless end ninth and host a rematch subsequent week if each groups win out — pending extra advanced multiteam ties.
Each the Warriors and the Lakers have only one recreation remaining in opposition to an opponent with one thing to play for — the New Orleans Pelicans — who go to the Warriors on Friday earlier than internet hosting the Lakers on Sunday. That places New Orleans in an attention-grabbing place to assist dictate the place the Lakers end, related as a result of the Pelicans maintain the Lakers’ first-round draft choose except they decide to defer it till 2025. (In fact, New Orleans has its personal playoff seeding to handle, and the Pelicans absolutely need to keep in sixth to keep away from coping with the play-in themselves.)
A Lakers win would have all however doomed Golden State to tenth within the West. The Warriors’ win makes the ultimate 5 days of the common season that rather more attention-grabbing.
2. Who’s extra harmful in a one-game state of affairs: LeBron or Steph?
Shelburne: This can be a fairly high-class downside for any staff that has both participant and only one recreation to win. Simply think about in the event that they have been on the identical staff, like what was mentioned between Lakers and Warriors possession earlier than the commerce deadline. On this case, James will get the slight nod as a result of he is on the ball a lot and may management the sport himself. Curry wants somebody to run the Warriors’ offense with and might be roughed up by greater, bodily groups. However he is nonetheless probably the most electrical offensive participant on the market when he is within the midst of certainly one of his flurries.
Marks: James and Curry have every performed in two play-in video games because the event began in 2021. James is 2-0 whereas Curry’s Golden State staff misplaced twice in 2021. We noticed the magic in Curry final 12 months in a winner-take-all Recreation 7 at Sacramento. However that was final 12 months, and I belief James and, most significantly, his Lakers teammates, in a winner-take-all this 12 months. In video games determined within the clutch this season, the Lakers are 23-9, tied with Dallas for the most effective profitable proportion. In the meantime, Golden State has performed a league-high 45 such video games and is one recreation beneath .500 in them.
Pelton: Can I reply ‘sure’? As Bobby notes, Curry is lower than a 12 months faraway from one of many nice one-game performances in NBA historical past. In the meantime, James has made a second profession of parsing out his power to peak within the greatest moments, as we noticed throughout final 12 months’s run from the play-in to the convention finals. In the end, I would choose James due to his capacity to regulate a recreation at each ends when he dials up his defensive depth.
3. Which participant on these two groups, apart from LeBron and Steph, is the largest X-factor heading into the play-in and probably the playoffs?
Pelton: Klay Thompson. When Thompson is making pictures, the Warriors nonetheless seem like contenders. Regardless of shedding his finest recreation of the season by recreation rating, per Basketball-Reference.com, Golden State is 8-1 when Thompson posts a recreation rating of 20 or higher — together with Tuesday evening. Throughout the 12 video games wherein Thompson has posted a recreation rating worse than 5, the Warriors are 2-10. Which may have been dangerous information in a matchup in opposition to the Lakers given the way in which Thompson has struggled in opposition to them traditionally, together with 34% taking pictures in final 12 months’s playoff loss, however he has totaled 53 factors on 19-of-31 taking pictures in his previous two matchups in L.A.
Shelburne: I am going with Draymond Inexperienced as a result of the Warriors merely aren’t the Warriors when he is not at his finest on each ends of the court docket. He’s the anchor of their protection and the engine of their offense. He has additionally shot the ball effectively sufficient from behind the 3-point arc (39.5%) that groups must respect him — thereby creating area for Curry and others. Tuesday evening his 5 3-pointers within the first half set the tone for the Warriors. He is doing all this now with a balky decrease again that is stored him out of a number of video games not too long ago.
Marks: The plain reply is Anthony Davis, contemplating he’s the most effective participant on both roster not named James or Curry. However D’Angelo Russell is the X-factor for the Lakers on how far they advance. Russell is the engine of a beginning lineup (Austin Reaves, James, Rui Hachimura and Davis) that’s 16-6 and a plus-6.3 in factors per 100 possessions. The Lakers are 15-3 in video games Russell scores 25-plus factors and 9-2 when he makes an attempt 11 3-pointers or extra. However in 27 profession playoff video games, Russell is taking pictures 38.9% from the sector, 32.9% on 3s and averaging 14.1 factors.
BONUS! What’s every staff’s playoff ceiling in the event that they get in?
Shelburne: I picked the Warriors to win all of it originally of the season and nonetheless suppose they will, with the best draw. In different phrases — in the event that they make the playoffs and keep away from Denver for so long as potential. That goes for the Lakers as effectively. Each groups have the expertise and playoff expertise to beat anybody. In fact, avoiding Denver is not actually a technique, and I do not see how both staff takes down the defending champions in a seven-game collection.
Marks: It will depend on the first-round opponent. A Denver first-round collection, and the Lakers or Warriors will begin trip in late April. Minnesota will definitely current a problem, particularly if Karl-Anthony Cities returns from his left knee harm. The Lakers have been 1-2 in opposition to the Timberwolves, however a kind of losses was by two factors. Golden State was winless within the three matchups.
The beginning 5 in Oklahoma Metropolis has by no means performed in a playoff collection collectively, and inexperience could possibly be an element if the Thunder draw both staff. Coming into the playoffs, Oklahoma is the second-youngest staff (solely behind Orlando) in gamers averaging 20-plus minutes. Starters Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort and reserves Gordon Hayward, Bismack Biyombo and Mike Muscala are the one gamers with playoff expertise. The Lakers have been 3-1 in opposition to Oklahoma Metropolis and Golden State was 1-3. For the reason that play-in event began in 2021, no staff ending ninth or tenth (Memphis reached the primary spherical in 2021) has superior previous the primary spherical.
Pelton: The ceiling is set by once they run into the Nuggets. I would like to see one other Denver-Golden State collection after their 2022 matchup, throughout which the Nuggets have been with out each Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. However the defending champs swept all seven matchups in opposition to these two groups and can be huge favorites.
Due to their playoff expertise and star energy, the Lakers and Warriors would have a practical probability in every other potential first-round matchup — and probably within the second spherical if Denver is on the opposite facet of the bracket. Let’s be clear that that is completely different from final season, when the Lakers reached the convention finals with out beating any staff that gained greater than 51 video games. This 12 months’s path would possibly require beating two groups with higher data than the 2022-23 Grizzlies (51-31).
