Whereas the Boston Celtics stay favorites to win each the East (-140 on ESPN BET) and the NBA championship (+185), the return of Joel Embiid from knee harm on Tuesday and the announcement Thursday that Julius Randle (shoulder surgical procedure) is out for the season may have main ramifications for the way the playoffs play out.
Return of the MVP. Will Embiid’s well being permit him to dominate?
Embiid’s return may make the 76ers contenders once more … with loads of ifs.
If Embiid is wholesome, and if the 76ers can play their method out of the play-in match and into the playoffs, then they’d have a crew able to competing in opposition to anybody, together with the Celtics. On the time he went down with a knee harm, Embiid was the clear favourite to win what would have been his second straight MVP award.
The 76ers have a 28-8 document within the video games Embiid has performed this season, a 77.8 win proportion that’s solely barely behind the Celtics (60-16, 78.9 win%) and considerably higher than the subsequent finest within the NBA (Timberwolves, 69.7 win%). The Bucks are the second seed within the Jap Convention, and so they solely sport a 61.8 win proportion.
If Embiid is wholesome, the 76ers are contenders.
However, is he absolutely wholesome? And in that case, will he stay that method?
Embiid is eight weeks faraway from surgical procedure to restore the lateral meniscus in his left knee, and simply did his first full-contact 5-on-5 apply on Saturday. He had no setbacks from that apply, so he was in a position to return to the beginning lineup on Tuesday regardless of being listed as “out” even two hours previous to sport time.
He performed 29 minutes on Tuesday, and regardless of trying rusty and drained at instances, had a formidable sport with 24 factors, 7 assists, 6 boards and three steals in a win over the Thunder. He adopted that up on Thursday with 29 factors, 4 boards and three assists in 33 minutes of a win over the Warmth. By head coach Nick Nurse, the 76ers have intimated that Embiid will proceed to play restricted minutes and be listed as a game-time resolution shifting ahead primarily based on how his knee continues to reply.
The 76ers have 5 video games remaining over the ultimate 10 days of the common season, 4 in opposition to groups deep within the lottery and one in opposition to the Magic. That is not loads of time for Embiid to work the rust off, however it does give him virtually two full weeks of “boot camp” to rise up to hurry earlier than the play-in match begins.
And that is the subsequent large query mark: the play-in. As a result of the 76ers struggled in Embiid’s absence, managing only a 14-27 document, they’ve fallen from the tempo of a No. 2 seed difficult for the highest spot to the No. 8 seed and a possible street sport within the first spherical of the play-in.
After defeating the Warmth on Thursday, the 76ers at the moment are solely a half-game behind the Warmth for the seventh spot and a sport behind the Pacers for sixth.
This makes these final 5 video games extra than simply an prolonged coaching camp for Embiid, as a result of grabbing that No. 6 seed would make an enormous distinction. The Pacers are a robust house crew sporting a 23-15 document in Indianapolis, whereas the Warmth have made a behavior of stepping up their sport dramatically within the playoffs as convention finalists or past in three of the previous 4 years. Both can be tough matchups as potential play-in opponents, significantly if the 76ers stay within the No. 8 spot and must play on the street.
The No. 6 seed is essential: it’s the final assured playoff spot and would result in a matchup in opposition to the third seed (at the moment the Cavaliers, although the Magic and Knicks are nonetheless in play). If the 76ers keep within the play-in, a win would yield the No. 7 seed and a probable matchup in opposition to the Bucks, who’ve proven some vulnerability this season however stay a latest champion with a few of the finest high-end expertise within the NBA. A loss in that play-in sport would imply a win-or-go-home matchup in opposition to the winner of the 9 vs. 10 sport, the place the prize for successful is a particularly powerful matchup in opposition to the top-seeded Celtics.
76ers Futures outlook
In line with ESPN BET, the 76ers have improved to the third-shortest odds to win the East at +1200. This teams them with the opposite secondary contenders within the Cavaliers (+1300), Knicks (+1500) and Warmth (+1500), effectively behind the favored Celtics (-140) or Bucks (+320). The same story performs out for the NBA title, the place the 76ers (+3000, tied for eighth-shortest odds) are a part of a bunch of 9 squads with odds between +2000 and +4000, effectively behind the Celtics (+185), Nuggets (+325), Clippers (+700) and Bucks (+750).
These odds are tied on to the uncertainties mentioned above, however it additionally offers a singular upside alternative. If Embiid is wholesome and stays that method, the 76ers’ probabilities would realistically be simply behind the Celtics and Nuggets as a favourite.
It is uncommon to get lengthy shot odds this late within the season on a crew with the achievable upside to win a championship. So, although dangerous, I discover lengthy shot worth within the 76ers for each the Jap Convention and NBA championships. I would not make them favorites, however they’re getting sufficient juice to make them worthy of some speculative picks.
However, what concerning the different Jap Convention crew that obtained large man information this week?
Randle’s absence and the Knicks’ ceiling
The information is not pretty much as good in Gotham, the place Randle was unable to get well from his separated shoulder with relaxation alone and must bear season-ending surgical procedure. Randle was within the midst of probably the greatest seasons of his profession earlier than harm struck, having earned his third All-Star nod up to now 4 seasons. However, much more than the non-public and statistical accolades, Randle was a key a part of what made the Knicks so harmful and profitable this season.
For these not sufficiently old to recollect the unique Voltron cartoon, it was about 5 robotic lions that have been all robust however defeatable on their very own. However collectively? Collectively, they shaped the parts of an enormous tremendous robotic, Voltron, who was unstoppable.
It is a very apt analogy for this Knicks crew that’s largely comprised of gamers on their second or third groups who thrive in particular roles and are having fun with the most effective private success of their NBA careers. Randle and Jalen Brunson have been each thought-about undersized for his or her positions, scorers greater than defenders, however each have grown into All Stars with the Knicks as a result of the crew permits them to concentrate on their strengths in well-defined roles.
Equally, Brunson’s Villanova brethren Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart thrive as robust 3-and-D threats on the wing. Isaiah Hartenstein, Mitchell Robinson and Valuable Achiuwa have been a three-headed defensive-minded, strolling double-double at middle. As soon as the Knicks introduced in OG Anunoby to be the Defensive Participant of the Yr-caliber anchor on that facet of the ball, the Knicks’ Voltron evolution for this season was full.
Sadly, to combine my cartoon analogies, accidents have grow to be the Knicks’ kryptonite this season. The Knicks solely bought 14 video games of Randle and Anunoby enjoying collectively earlier than accidents lower the whole lot quick. From Jan. 1 to 27, the Knicks went 12-2 with that duo on the court docket collectively, together with a 38-point blowout over the defending champion Nuggets, a win over the West’s top-seeded Timberwolves, and a 46-point win over the 76ers in Philadelphia with each Embiid and Tyrese Maxey within the lineup.
The Knicks have been totally dominant for that total month, with Anunoby anchoring the protection whereas Randle and Brunson offered the scoring. However with Randle and Anunoby out, the crew has struggled. They’ve misplaced 13 of their previous 22 video games. Brunson has had an All-NBA season and can even get some votes for MVP, however he simply cannot preserve a championship degree with out his two fundamental lieutenants on the court docket with him.
Knicks Futures outlook
In line with ESPN BET, the Knicks nonetheless have comparable futures odds because the 76ers with the Knicks at +1500 to win the East and +4000 to win the championship.
I disagree with these odds, although, as a result of with out Randle I do not imagine the Knicks nonetheless have championship upside. They are going to be aggressive, they are going to be a troublesome out that performs exhausting protection and Brunson will proceed to supply offense at a exceptional degree. If Anunoby comes again, they are going to be much more aggressive. However with out Randle’s constant scoring and offense creation because the counter to Brunson, their offense turns into too one-dimensional for them to beat a crew just like the Bucks or Embiid-led 76ers 4 instances in seven video games, not to mention a crew just like the Celtics.
With Randle out, I’d fade the Knicks to win both the Jap convention or the NBA championship.
