The Los Angeles Dodgers will carry within the new Main League Baseball season on Wednesday morning after they open a two-game set in opposition to the San Diego Padres in Seoul, South Korea. Each contests might be held on the Gocheok Sky Dome, the host venue for the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Group. This may symbolize the primary time in historical past MLB video games have been performed in South Korea.
The Dodgers are a becoming alternative to guide off the yr, as no group enters the yr with extra hype or potential. Credit score the Dodgers’ buzz to an offseason that noticed them signal Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto – a pair that may be interchangeably described because the winter’s high two free brokers and the very best hitter and pitcher out there – whereas additionally acquiring right-hander Tyler Glasnow, left-hander James Paxton, and outfielder Teoscar Hernández, amongst different notable veterans.
To suppose, these stars be part of a roster that already employed former Most Worthwhile Participant Award winners Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and in addition gained 100 video games final yr for the sixth time prior to now seven full-length seasons. So accustomed to profitable are these Dodgers that any accomplishment in need of a wins report or World Sequence title is met with a yawn – or, extra possible, requires the group to fireside supervisor Dave Roberts.
Simply how good are the Dodgers purported to be this season? Very, in accordance with the assorted forecast fashions. SportsLine has them down for 103 wins, whereas Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA mannequin says 101 and FanGraphs’ ZiPS system represents the low vote at 93. (To be honest, that, in ZiPS’ eyes, is sweet for the second finest report in MLB behind the Atlanta Braves.) Somewhat than reaffirm as soon as extra that these Dodgers are more likely to be superb, we determined to conduct a thought experiment by asking ourselves: what wouldn’t it take for the Dodgers to overlook the playoffs for the primary time since 2012?
Under, we have recognized 5 danger components – all sensible, if not possible or possible – that, in the event that they occurred, may derail the hype practice that’s the 2024 Dodgers.
1. The rotation is compromised
We are able to all however assure that the Dodgers are going to expertise turbulence with their rotation. In truth, it is already taking place. They will enter the season with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Emmet Sheehan out there to pitch, and that is simply the beginning of it. They will even be with out Dustin Might, Tony Gonsolin, and high prospect Nick Frasso, who will miss the season after present process shoulder surgical procedure.
All these absences will depart the Dodgers with a beginning 5 that features Glasnow, Yamamoto, Paxton, and second-year righty Bobby Miller. (Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are in a contest for the fifth and ultimate spot within the rotation.) You do not have to work arduous to identify the draw back potential with that group.
Yamamoto is probably the most achieved pitcher on the earth to not but pitch in a MLB common season sport. He gained three consecutive MVP and Cy Younger equal Awards to shut out his Nippon Skilled Baseball profession, and there is each cause to consider he’ll be capable to stand out in MLB. Nonetheless, it might be comprehensible if he experiences some pains all through his first season: not solely does MLB use a distinct ball than NPB, however it additionally employs a pitch clock and a tighter schedule. In addition to, Yamamoto is a human being, and it is comprehensible if he takes time to settle into a brand new nation.
Glasnow and Paxton have had their justifiable share of success within the majors, however each really feel riskier than the typical bear from a well being perspective. To wit, Glasnow has averaged 72 innings over the past three seasons; Paxton, in the meantime, has thrown 117 innings for the reason that begin of the 2020 marketing campaign … with 96 of these coming in 2023.
Then there’s Miller, who set a career-high in innings with 138 between the majors and the minors. It stands to cause the Dodgers will wish to be conservative along with his workload, which means that he is in all probability due for a gradual enhance in innings pitched. That, plus the will to ease Yamamoto into an MLB schedule, may compel the Dodgers to show to a six-pitcher rotation at instances to maintain issues churning.
As such, it is simpler to ascertain a state of affairs the place the Dodgers are digging into their depth early and infrequently. Los Angeles does have an unimaginable variety of intriguing younger arms on the best way – maintain the names Kyle Harm and River Ryan in thoughts – however there is no assure these prospects will excel instantly. Simply final yr, the aforementioned Grove, Stone, and Sheehan mixed for a 6.19 ERA in 161 innings pitched.
In fact, we all know that if the Dodgers rotation did expertise their absolute worst-case final result, the entrance workplace would possible simply commerce for reinforcements on the deadline. That is why we’re itemizing it as one in every of a number of danger components.
2. Excessive-leverage hijinx
Too typically, we view the pitching workers as two separate parts: the rotation and the bullpen. It is a wise distinction due to the totally different roles and expectations, however it misses the cascading impact at play – significantly nowadays, when groups now not count on their starters to reliably work deep into video games.
If the rotation proves unfit to hold a heavy load, that would put extra stress on the Dodgers bullpen, which may result in some underperformance from the reduction corps. The simplest means for a group to submit a poorer report than anticipated is to play poorly in late-and-close and one-run conditions. Simply ask the 2023 Padres about that. (San Diego went 9-23 in one-run video games and 2-12 in extra-inning contests en path to a disappointing 82-80 mark.)
The Dodgers have confirmed to be nice at discovering helpful bullpen arms after they want them, however we’ll level out that they’ve a good quantity of arms with error bars. What occurs if Joe Kelly reverts to his White Sox type? Or if Ryan Brasier pitches extra like he did with the Crimson Sox? Or if Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, and J.P. Feyereisen harm themselves once more? As with the rotation, it is all concerning the sequencing and severity. A few of the above is more likely to move. All of it, without delay? Not as a lot.
Absolutely the doomsday state of affairs, the place the rotation and bullpen each expertise their well being and efficiency woes concurrently, is distant however not unimaginable. The snag is, but once more, that the Dodgers would absolutely transfer on and discover a repair to their reduction points.
Talking of which, let’s transfer on to the following part.
3. Harm bug disrupts
We’re keen on mentioning that participant well being is the good unknown for public evaluation. We can not determine who will (or will not) get harm in any given season with confidence. That is unlucky as a result of seasons are sometimes determined by that invisible pressure.
An apparent danger issue to those Dodgers, then, is that if the damage bug took up residence of their clubhouse, sidelining quite a few gamers for numerous lengths of time.
We hope you agree that is a good commentary to make. Alas, we should concede that the Dodgers have established a precedent the place they’re in a position to overcome mass accidents. Final season, they recorded the second most days missed due to damage within the majors – behind solely the Los Angeles Angels – and so they nonetheless gained 100 video games.
We’ll word that the who issues in these circumstances. Your fifth reliever lacking 15 days counts the identical as your beginning catcher, however one has a higher affect on wins and losses. These Dodgers are absurdly deep, although, to the extent that the damage bug must affect a number of high performers to wreak carnage. Ben Clemens, a must-read creator at FanGraphs, just lately revealed that Los Angeles can be projected to complete at .500 even when their 4 finest gamers have been faraway from the roster.
Maybe it is price viewing that discovering from a distinct angle.
4. Stars scuffle
Possibly a extra imposing danger issue for the Dodgers is not their high stars – Ohtani, Betts, Freeman included – lacking time due to damage. Possibly it is them collectively having down years. In any case, when a star participant is harm, they’re changed within the lineup by a participant who has an opportunity to be efficient; when a star participant is slumping, the group is unlikely to bench them. That may find yourself being a drag on the lineup if the spiels stack.
There’s no cause to suppose that the aforementioned trio will battle, and there particularly is not any cause to suppose all three will accomplish that for extended stretches. This complete piece is a thought experiment, nevertheless, so let’s proceed to play satan’s advocate whereas acknowledging that typically nice gamers have spotty years.
So, say Ohtani has bother discovering his rhythm with out pitching (he didn’t expertise that subject final time he could not pitch); say Betts has a exhibiting like 2017 (nonetheless good), and say Freeman begins to indicate the indicators of damage and tear that come from being 34 and reliably enjoying nearly each single sport (he is missed a complete of 11 video games in six seasons). Below such a state of affairs, the Dodgers would obtain considerably worse manufacturing than they anticipated over the course of two,000 premium plate appearances.
Shy of the MVP Three utterly cratering, some collective underperformance would don’t have any likelihood of sinking the Dodgers by itself. But it surely may do some harm if paired with a number of of those different danger components.
5. Surprising ascents
The Dodgers have not simply been a relentless presence within the playoffs since 2013, they have been the kings of the Nationwide League West. For this danger issue, we’re considering again to the 2021 season, the one time they’ve fallen in need of a division crown in 11 years. That was the yr that the San Francisco Giants shockingly gained the West and 107 video games.
Do we predict any of the Dodgers’ NL West foes are more likely to have an analogous yr? No, although we actually suppose the playoffs are potential for the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Giants. However that is the purpose, proper? Nobody anticipated the 2021 Giants to do what they did. Bizarre issues occur each night time and yearly in baseball. If a kind of West rivals have been to blaze the sector all summer season with sudden brilliance and seize the division, it might scale back the Dodgers’ playoff probabilities to an extent.
Granted, that risk can be magnified if the playoffs hadn’t been expanded lately. As it’s, the Dodgers must see a few of these different danger components come to fruition for them to be at severe danger of lacking out on October. And is not that the kicker of this complete train? Right here we’re, dreaming up an unhealthy cocktail of misgivings that will wreck most groups within the identify of making an attempt to jot down the Dodgers out of the postseason … and we nonetheless cannot persuade ourselves that it might be sufficient.
In case you ask us, that could be the very best praise you can provide these Dodgers: they appear so good and so deep on paper that it is arduous to determine how they might fail, even when approaching their season with pessimistic eyes.
