Who wins the 2024 NASCAR Cup championship?

With the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs set to begin at Atlanta Motor Speedway, it’s time to make some predictions that surely will not age poorly. It’s true few would have named Blaney as the 2023 champion at the start of last year’s playoffs, or Logano the year before that. It seems somewhat futile to try and predict this unpredictable format, but we’ll try our best as we take a look at all 16 drivers and just how far they may go in the four rounds that make up the NASCAR title fight.

OUT in the Round of 16

Harrison Burton: While his victory at Daytona was an incredible upset, it doesn’t change the fact that the driver of the Wood Brothers No. 21 was last in points among full-time drivers before the victory. Atlanta’s inclusion in the first round may give him some hope, but Burton is likely to fall behind in the two races that follow.

Chase Briscoe: His victory in the Southern 500 shocked me, so I wouldn’t put it past him to shock us all again. This is Stewart-Haas Racing’s last shot at glory, but the facts just don’t show him going that far. Outside of the Darlington races, he has one top-five this year. I expect him to be decent at Bristol, but he’ll need to be lucky at Atlanta and faster than he’s been in previous road courses this year at Watkins Glen to avoid elimination. 

Austin Cindric: If not for a surprise showing at Gateway, Cindric would be suffering another season mired deeper in the standings. He’s shown flashes of speed, but those are rare and his average finish this year is the second-lowest in the entire playoff field. If Penske wins a third consecutive Cup title, it won’t be with the driver of the No. 2 Ford.

Joey Logano: Penske may lose two of its three bullets in the very first round. Perhaps a surprise exit, but despite a victory at Nashville, which only happened as most of the field ran out of fuel and crashed, 2024 has been a difficult season for Logano. This is his worst season-long average finish since 2011. The No. 22 team just doesn’t seem to have it all together for a run at a third Cup title.

OUT in the Round of 12

Daniel Suarez: While some may put Suarez as a first-round exit, he is the most recent winner at Atlanta and is a very capable road course racer, so his advancement into the Round of 12 seems possible. Trackhouse has just been off a bit this year. If he does manage to make it to this round, then he will make it no further without another dramatic win. The last time he was in the playoffs, he was also eliminated in this same round.

Alex Bowman: The driver of the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports car has been solid enough, but his statistics still have him lagging behind his three HMS teammates. He only led eight laps en route to his victory at Chicago and has finished 16th or worse in five of the six races that followed. Hendrick power will carry him into this round, but no further.

Ty Gibbs: Making his debut in the playoffs, Gibbs is just one of just two drivers to point their way into the postseason. While consistent, he holds few playoff points and seems to be lagging behind his JGR teammates for most of the year, much like Bowman. He has rarely shown the ability to go and be dominant like his teammates in a way needed to contend for the title. While his consistency could push him a bit further into the playoffs, I think he’s already reached his ceiling this year while several veterans around him are about to turn it up a notch.

William Byron: Half of Hendrick Motorsports falls in the Round of 12. Byron started the year on a stunning streak, winning three of the first eight races including the Daytona 500. However, he’s been hot and cold since then. Just look at his recent finishes: 30th, 27th, 3rd, 13th, 38th, 4th, 8th, 19th, 26th. There’s no middle ground and more importantly, no wins since early April. Besides, the Daytona 500 winner hasn’t gone on to win the Cup title since 2013!

OUT in the Round of 8

Brad Keselowski: I’m calling it right now. The RFK Racing driver will win at Talladega and secure his place in this round. If not for this projected victory, he’s not making it to the Round of 8 at all , and so his title run will finally end here. He is an exceptional driver at the 2.66-mile superspeedway with six wins there, but he doesn’t have the car to best the titans that will remain in this penultimate round.

Chase Elliott: Elliott has been one of the more consistent drivers in the field, which he will utilize in this deep playoff run. However, his only victory came at Texas and in this round, we’ve seen drivers pull off back-to-back runner-up finishes and still have to throw their car into the wall (on purpose) to avoid certain elimination. Consistency won’t be enough in the Round of 8.

Martin Truex Jr.: Unfortunately, it will be no storybook end to MTJ’s full-time career. The inconsistency and pure bad luck that has plagued him since last year will continue to do so. He will win a race, which will help him to advance this far, but this is where the journey ends.

Ryan Blaney: There has never been a back-to-back champion in this format, which will continue in 2024. Penske’s stranglehold on the Cup title since the start of the Next Gen era began ends with Blaney’s Round of 8 exit. He will be plenty fast enough, but most of the drivers advancing now are ones Blaney and the rest of the field have struggled to keep up with all year.

Championship 4 

Kyle Larson: Seems like an obvious choice, and not a very bold pick. He leads the field in race wins and laps led and has been a force to be reckoned with throughout the entire season. There was no rough patch, unless you count missing the Coke 600 to run the Indianapolis 500. Most of the DNFs he’s suffered were in races where he was battling near the front. He has more playoff points than any other driver, which will rescue him from most trouble he may find along the way. However, he still won’t win the title! I’ll explain why in a bit…

Denny Hamlin: After two years where he just barely missed the Championship 4, Hamlin will make it this year, and that’s despite losing a good chunk of his playoff points to a shock engine penalty just before the playoffs began. However, the elusive title will continue to vex him in 2024. In truth, I have no solid reason for this other than fate has decided he’s not allowed to win, so he won’t. For so many years it’s looked like Hamlin was finally going to do it, but then it all goes wrong in the eleventh hour for the driver of the No. 11.

Tyler Reddick: Hamlin will be one of three Toyota drivers in the Championship 4, making Larson’s attempt to win the title very difficult. The finale takes place at Phoenix where Toyotas were unstoppable earlier this year. An astonishing 298 of 312 laps were led by Toyota drivers, and it wasn’t just one of them. Reddick and Hamlin each led 68 laps, Truex led 55, Gibbs led 57. Reddick is the regular season champ and like Larson, has been a dominant force this season. In a season-long format, we’d likely be naming one of them the champion in November. However, we’re using a very different format these days where surprises are the expectation.

CHAMPION – Christopher Bell: Bell is already the only driver to make the Championship 4 in both years of the Next Gen era. While somewhat absent as of late, he will do it again in 2024. Bell and crew chief Adam Stevens remind me a bit of Johnson/Knaus when it’s time to fight for a title. They are able to dig deep, win races, and remain a threat no matter what. Bell has quietly racked up more playoff bonus points than anyone but Larson. He has managed to win three of the last six Round of 8 races. Oh, and did I mention that he won at Phoenix earlier this year? Yeah, he took the checkered flag with over five seconds between him and the nearest competition. Calling it now: The 2024 NASCAR Cup champion will be Christopher Bell.