As we stay up for 2024 and await among the offseason’s largest free agent signings (the place will you go, Shohei Ohtani?), we have a good time one of the best gamers within the recreation through the 2023 common season.
The week began off with Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson unanimously successful American League Rookie of the 12 months honors and Corbin Carroll additionally successful unanimously within the Nationwide League. Subsequent up, Henderson’s skipper, Brandon Hyde, took house AL Supervisor of the 12 months, with Skip Schumaker taking house the NL silverware.
The awards schedule is as follows (all awards introduced beginning at 6 p.m. ET):
Monday: Jackie Robinson Rookies of the 12 months: Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson
Tuesday: Managers of the 12 months: Brandon Hyde, Skip Schumaker
Wednesday: Cy Younger Awards
Thursday: MVP Awards
Beneath, we record the three finalists in every class, together with what that you must know earlier than the outcomes are introduced and our picks to take house the {hardware}. We’ll replace every part with information and evaluation because the awards are handed out.
Leap to … :
Rookie of the 12 months: AL | NL
Supervisor of the 12 months: AL | NL
Cy Younger: AL | NL
MVP: AL | NL
American League Supervisor of the 12 months
Winner: Brandon Hyde, Baltimore Orioles
Ultimate tally: Hyde 144 (27 first-place votes); Bruce Bochy 61 (3); Kevin Money 52; Rocco Baldelli 8; Dusty Baker 4; John Schneider 1
Consultants’ picks: Hyde (9 votes), Bochy (4)
Doolittle’s take: Anybody paying consideration knew the Orioles had been a franchise poised to bust out — however few thought they’d achieve this in a 100-plus win trend, not to mention this yr, simply two seasons faraway from a 110-loss season. With the laid again Hyde setting the tone, the Child Birds received extra recreation than any Baltimore workforce for the reason that days of Earl Weaver, Jim Palmer and Eddie Murray. The O’s added 18 wins to their 2022 win complete (83) — which was in itself a significant shock.
Whereas the supervisor awards are the toughest to contextualize with metrics on the particular person degree, Hyde stood out in all of the areas that have a tendency to draw observers to managerial excellence. Baltimore outperformed its run profile by 7.2 wins, second-largest optimistic hole within the majors. The Orioles beat their preseason over-under consensus by 23.5 wins, making them simply essentially the most shocking workforce in baseball. They usually went 30-16 in one-run video games.
Past that, the Orioles had been simply enjoyable, as Hyde and his workers proceed to transition among the recreation’s most promising younger gamers into the big-league degree. Who will neglect the “Homer Hose” which was completely by no means precisely like a fraternity get together beer bong?
Some managers are employed ostensibly to be a rebuild skipper, to carry down the fort because the losses pile up and the workforce builds its roster to rivalry worthiness. Usually, these beleaguered managers are fired in favor of a big-name skipper as quickly because the workforce begins contending. Something can occur, after all, nevertheless it certain appears to be like like Hyde and the Orioles are a match poised for a future collectively.
Hyde turns into the fourth Oriole to win AL Supervisor of the 12 months honors, becoming a member of Frank Robinson (1989), Davey Johnson (1997) and Buck Showalter (2014). Bochy completed a distant second, so he’ll must be content material together with his fourth World Sequence trophy. Likelihood is he is completely satisfied to do exactly that.
Here is how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Brandon Hyde, BAL (17.3)
2. A.J. Hinch, DET (8.9)
3. Kevin Money, TBY (4.8)
4. Bruce Bochy, TEX (0.4)
5. Scott Servais, SEA (minus-0.3)
Be aware: EARL is a metric that appears at how a workforce’s successful proportion varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run document. Whereas attributing these measures to managerial efficiency is presumptive, the metric does have a tendency to trace properly with the annual balloting.
Supervisor of the 12 months must-reads:
How the Baltimore Orioles went from uncooked expertise to essentially good
Why Bruce Bochy may be the best supervisor ever
Nationwide League Supervisor of the 12 months
Winner: Skip Schumaker, Miami Marlins
Ultimate tally: Schumaker 72 (8 first-place votes); Craig Counsell 51 (5); Brian Snitker 48 (8); Torey Lovello 42 (4); Dave Roberts 41 (4); David Bell 13 (1); David Ross 3
Consultants’ picks: Counsell (7 votes), Schumaker (6)
Doolittle’s take: First off, I’ve to level out that the voters neglected a first-rate candidate in David Bell, who led a rookie-laden Reds workforce to a 20-win enchancment. Whether or not he did a superior job to Schumacher, Counsell or Snitker is an open debate — however the latter two piloted groups that the majority observers felt would contend, and Snitker led a loaded Braves workforce that you might all however pencil into the playoffs. None of that is to knock the finalists, however extra to present some props to the neglected Bell.
The Marlins employed Schumker, a former Cardinals coach, final winter to succeed Don Mattingly. The primary-year skipper was up for the problem, main Miami to a 15-win enchancment, a successful document and a shock wild-card slot. And so he out-paced Counsell within the voting and prevents the Cubs’ new supervisor from being honored for his work in main his previous workforce previous his new workforce within the NL Central race. (Baseball will get complicated at occasions.)
The Marlins outperformed their run profile by an MLB-high 9.1 wins this season on the energy of a surreal 33-14 document in one-run video games. Main a workforce that lacked offensive firepower — Miami ranked 14th in park-adjusted run scoring — Schumaker guided his membership by means of a surfeit of tight, low-scoring video games, belying his lack of expertise as the highest man within the dugout. It is laborious to argue in opposition to his place atop the balloting.
At 43, the long run appears to be like vibrant for Schumaker at a time when his workforce is once more feeling round for the elusive stability that has at all times eluded the Marlins franchise. He is the fourth Marlins pilot to win Supervisor of the 12 months Honors. The earlier three — Jack McKeon (2003), Joe Girardi (2006) and Mattingly (2020) — led the Marlins for a mixed complete of 4 seasons after being honored.
Counsell, maybe the sport’s greatest supervisor, has nonetheless by no means received the award — he is now completed second within the balloting 4 occasions. Snitker fell quick in his bid to win his second; he, too, has completed fourth or higher within the voting in every of the final six years.
Here is how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. David Bell, CIN (8.5)
2. Brian Snitker, ATL (6.6)
3. Skip Schumacher, MIA (6.2)
4. Dave Martinez, WAS (5.7)
5. Torey Lovullo, ARI (5.5)
Supervisor of the 12 months must-reads:
Why Cubs stole Craig Counsell from Brewers
How Craig Counsell reset the managerial wage panorama — perhaps perpetually
American League Rookie of the 12 months
Winner: Gunnar Henderson
Ultimate tally: 1. Henderson, Orioles 150 (30 first-place votes); 2. Tanner Bibee, Guardians 67; 3. Triston Casas, Pink Sox 25; 4. Josh Jung, Rangers 16; 5. Yainer Diaz, Astros 6. Masataka Yoshida, Pink Sox 3; 7. Edouard Julien, Twins 2; 8. Anthony Volpe, Yankees 1.
Consultants’ picks: Henderson (13 votes) (unanimous alternative)
Bradford Doolittle’s take: In a few years, you’re tempted to throw out the statement that the Rookie of the 12 months is not essentially one of the best prospect in a season. This time round, the argument is extra about whose long-term outlook is extra glowing — the AL’s Henderson or the NL’s Carroll. By way of preseason consensus, each entered the season as the highest prospect of their respective league, and, all these months later, they’re no-brainer picks for the Rookie of the 12 months awards. It is good when issues line up like that.
Henderson struggled on the plate early within the season. By the tip of the season, he was a catalyst within the Orioles’ lineup, ending with 28 homers. And he took over as Baltimore’s on a regular basis shortstop, transferring over from the recent nook in June. From there, he performed at quick extra usually however may flip again relying on the wants of the lineup. His defensive metrics had been robust at each spots.
Shifting ahead, there’s room for Henderson to get even higher. He hit simply .199 with a .595 OPS in opposition to lefties, carrying over the platoon cut up he displayed within the minors. That is in all probability extra of a priority for future Orioles opponents than it’s for Henderson.
Henderson turns into the primary Oriole to win AL Rookie of the 12 months honors since Cal Ripken Jr. in 1982. Final season, Adley Rutschman completed second within the voting behind Julio Rodriguez. With Jackson Holliday a well-liked choose as the present high prospect within the recreation, this basis for the Orioles simply retains getting stronger and deeper.
Here is how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Gunnar Henderson, Diamondbacks (130 AXE)
2. Tanner Bibee, Guardians (118)
3. Zack Gelof, Athletics (113)
4. (tie) Royce Lewis, Twins (112)
Edouard Julien, Twins (112)
Yennier Cano, Orioles (112)
Be aware: AXE is an index that creates a consensus score from the main worth metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win likelihood added and championship likelihood added, each from Baseball Reference).
Rookie the 12 months must-reads:
How younger Orioles rode their expertise to the AL’s greatest document
Nationwide League Rookie of the 12 months
Winner: Corbin Carroll
Ultimate tally: 1. Carroll, Diamondbacks 150 (30 first-place votes); 2. Kodai Senga, Mets 71; 3. James Outman, Dodgers 20; 4. Nolan Jones, Rockies 17; 5. Matt McLain, Reds 5; 6. Spencer Steer, Reds 4; 7. Eury Perez, Marlins 1; 8. Elly De La Cruz, Reds 1; 9. Patrick Bailey, Giants 1.
Consultants’ picks: Carroll (13 votes) (unanimous alternative)
Doolittle’s take: The NL’s 2023 rookie class was a robust one, however after April, there was little drama within the race for this award. Carroll rolled to a .910 OPS through the first month, although he was a bit overshadowed by James Outman‘s highly effective first month for the Dodgers. After that, it was all Carroll, who displayed each the constant and the spectacular on his technique to a historic rookie marketing campaign.
Carroll is the entire package deal on the plate. At 22, he manifested velocity (54 steals, NL-high 10 triples), energy (25 homers, .506 slugging), contact (.285 common) and self-discipline (57 walks and 13 HBPs). He hit at house (.902 OPS) and on the street (.843). He hit righties (.286) and lefties (.283), although he confirmed much more slug in opposition to righties. He turned the primary rookie to achieve 25 homers and 50 steals in the identical season.
Carroll was a beast within the early rounds of the postseason throughout Arizona’s unlikely run to the World Sequence, however he trailed off within the Nationwide League Championship Sequence and the Fall Basic. He isn’t a completed product at 22, however who’s? As with Henderson, that he nonetheless has weaknesses to iron out is a scary prospect for Arizona opponents. Carroll is the primary Diamondbacks participant to be named Rookie of the 12 months.
As talked about, this was an awfully good rookie class within the NL. The Reds had been a one-team ROY poll on their very own, with McLain, Elly de la Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer and Andrew Abbott all among the many first-year standouts.
The Mets and Giants discovered their catchers of the long run in 2023 (Francisco Alvarez and Patrick Bailey). The Brewers graduated a plethora of thrilling outfielders (Sal Frelick, Joey Weimer, Garrett Mitchell). The Rockies’ dismal season was partially redeemed by the play and promise flashed by shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Senga was one of the best factor that occurred within the Mets’ disappointing yr.
Forward of this spectacular group was Carroll, who, together with Henderson, confirmed us that typically even essentially the most hyped prospects prove to dwell as much as their superior billing.
Here is how my AXE League leaderboard had it:
1. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks (137)
2. (tie) Kodai Senga, Mets (122)
Nolan Jones, Rockies (122)
4. James Outman, Dodgers (120)
5. Matt McLain, Reds (117)
Rookie of the 12 months must-reads:
American League MVP
Finalists:
• Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
• Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
• Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
Consultants’ choose: Ohtani (13 votes) (unanimous alternative)
What to know: We’ve got written comparable issues about Ohtani for years now, however we have by no means seen anybody do what he did in 2023. On the plate, he led the AL with 44 homers, a .412 on-base proportion and a .654 slugging proportion. On the mound, he went 10-5 with 167 strikeouts and a 3.14 ERA. He earned 10.0 WAR at Baseball-Reference.com, 2.6 greater than some other participant within the AL, and 9.0 at Fangraphs, 2.7 greater than anybody else. There may be simply no good argument for one more participant.
Nonetheless, whilst Ohtani is a shoo-in for his second MVP trophy, the early finish to his season and the Angels’ disappointing 73-89 document make this presumably anticlimactic to some voters. He threw his final pitch on Aug. 23 and made his final journey to the plate on Sept. 3. Not solely did this quash Othani’s quest to publish one of the best season in historical past, nevertheless it may need truly swayed some voters to show to Seager, who missed a piece of regular-season time as properly. That may be very true if the playoffs had been thought of, as Seager as soon as once more transmogrified into Playoff Seager when the video games mattered most. — Bradford Doolittle
MVP must-reads:
Shohei Ohtani Tracker: The place will MLB’s high free agent land?
Is Corey Seager the brand new Mr. October?
Nationwide League MVP
Finalists:
• Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
• Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Consultants’ picks: Acuna (12 votes), Betts (1)
What to know: The outcomes from our specialists’ picks counsel this might be a runaway victory for Acuna — and it in all probability might be — however that belies how shut of a race this was between Acuna and Betts. In fWAR, they ended up tied at 8.3. In bWAR, Betts holds the smallest of edges at 8.3 to eight.2. In most seasons, that will result in a hotly contested MVP debate, however Acuna had the flashier numbers: 41 house runs and 73 steals, turning into not simply the fifth member of the 40/40 membership, however blowing previous that group to create the 40/70 membership.
In addition to main the majors in stolen bases, Acuna led the NL in runs, hits, OBP, OPS and complete bases. Regardless of these gaudy numbers and regardless of Acuna being the favourite for many of the season, Betts had arguably pulled forward getting into the ultimate month, after hitting .455 with 11 house runs and 30 RBIs in August. Certainly, through FanGraphs, Betts led in WAR, 7.7 to six.7, on the finish of August. Betts, nonetheless, struggled in September, hitting .244 with one house run, whereas Acuna completed with a burst, hitting .340 with 11 house runs. He ought to be a part of Freeman (2020), Chipper Jones (1999) and Dale Murphy (1982-83) as Braves gamers to win MVP honors for the reason that franchise moved to Atlanta. — David Schoenfield
MVP must-reads:
Inside Ronald Acuna Jr.’s return to MVP kind
How Mookie Betts turned a Dodgers … infielder
American League Cy Younger
Finalists:
• Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
• Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
• Sonny Grey, Minnesota Twins
Consultants’ picks: Cole (13 votes) (unanimous alternative)
What to know: Cole is without doubt one of the greatest pitchers to by no means win a Cy Younger Award. Amongst pitchers who’ve by no means received, he ranks second in profession Cy Younger award shares at 1.90, simply behind Adam Wainwright‘s 1.98. What’s an award share? In case you are the unanimous winner, that is one award share. In case you get half the attainable most factors, that is a half share. Cole has acquired Cy Younger votes in six completely different seasons, together with runner-up finishes with the Astros in 2019 (to Justin Verlander) and in 2021 with the Yankees (to Robbie Ray).
He’ll be getting the trophy this yr, and the one query is whether or not it will likely be a unanimous choice. It must be, as there is not actually a robust argument for anybody else. Cole went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA, main the AL in ERA, innings pitched, batting common allowed, OBP allowed and OPS whereas rating second to Gausman in strikeouts. He was the runaway chief in bWAR, 7.4 to five.3 for Grey. It was a decent race till mid-August, and perhaps Ohtani would have given Cole a run if hadn’t been injured, however Cole had a terrific stretch drive, going 5-0 with a 1.29 ERA over his ultimate seven begins, decreasing his ERA from 3.03 to 2.63. The Yankees missed the playoffs for the primary time since 2016, nevertheless it actually wasn’t Cole’s fault. — Schoenfield
Nationwide League Cy Younger
Finalists:
• Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Blake Snell, San Diego Padres
• Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
Consultants’ picks: Snell (12 votes), Webb (1)
What to know: There may be treasured little to separate the three nominees, nor would there be should you added the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler, the Cubs’ Justin Steele and the Braves’ Spencer Strider to the combination. Once we see how the voters landed among the many nominees, we’ll learn the way a lot they weighed Snell’s dominance (MLB-best 2.25 ERA), Webb’s sturdiness (MLB-best 216 innings) and Gallen’s stability of outcomes (210 innings, 3.47 ERA, 17 wins).
Superior worth metrics are supposed to assist us kind this stuff out, however they do not agree on who did what within the Nationwide League. By way of bWAR, Snell outpaced Webb for the league lead (6.0 to five.5). In the meantime, in fWAR, Wheeler (5.9) and Strider (5.5) outperformed all three nominees. Sorting all of it out, Snell looks like the favourite, however you might choose any of the six pitchers talked about right here and make a reputable argument for why they need to win. — Doolittle
