The San Diego Padres are actually lower than three weeks away from starting Main League Baseball’s common season with a two-game set towards the Los Angeles Dodgers in Seoul, South Korea. The Padres adopted up a disappointing season with a transformative winter; gone are supervisor Bob Melvin and stars Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Trent Grisham. There have been no huge exterior additions to take their locations, both. Certainly, the Padres are, in impact, taking a step away from their current trajectory.
That features within the outfield, the place Fernando Tatis Jr. is the one positive factor. In any other case, the Padres are within the midst of a two-position battle with greater than a handful of entrants. As new supervisor Mike Shildt informed reporters (together with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune): “The outfield competitors is actual. I imply, the place do you begin?”
We all know our reply. With due respect to the others vying for a spot — José Azocar, Jurickson Profar, Cal Mitchell … take a breath … Bryce Johnson, Óscar Mercado, Tim Locastro, and Jakob Marsee — probably the most intriguing potential a part of San Diego’s outfield equation is Jackson Merrill, a 20-year-old transformed shortstop with 46 video games value of expertise at or above the Double-A degree.
Simply what makes Merrill so attention-grabbing? And why does it appear extra probably than not that he’ll play a job in San Diego’s Opening Day outfield? Let’s spotlight three elements.
1. Merrill is a respectable prospect
Merrill has been on our radar since spring 2021, and he entered that summer time’s draft with as a lot helium as anybody else within the class. We ranked him fiftieth that July, noting that he was a polarizing prospect primarily based on his background and projections:
Merrill is a risk-reward play for the ultimate spot on this checklist. He is moved up boards rapidly over the past month, although estimates on the place he’ll go within the draft are everywhere. His boosters see him as an above-average hitter, full with good pop from the left facet, whereas his detractors wish to see him go to Kentucky and show that he is not the product of going through Maryland excessive schoolers. Nonetheless Merrill’s profession performs out, he is prone to be one of the vital second-guessed picks on this class.
The Padres proved to be on the “booster” facet of the spectrum, deciding on Merrill twenty seventh general. He is since developed into one of many sport’s greatest prospects. To wit, CBS Sports activities just lately ranked Merrill because the twelfth greatest prospect within the minors. Right here is our report, which we’ll word was initially penned final winter:
The Padres made three of the primary 75 picks within the 2021 draft. Two of their picks (James Wooden and Robert Gasser) have since been traded as a part of offers for Juan Soto and Josh Hader. Merrill, the very best drafted of the three, stays within the group. He ought to quickly grow to be a part of the big-league lineup. Merrill related on greater than 80% of his swings final season, leading to a cumulative .277/.326/.444 slash line throughout Excessive- and Double-A. His means to place the bat on the ball is his prime promoting level. He does have some energy, however it’s nearly solely to his pull facet, and it is exhausting to see him displacing Xander Bogaerts because the Padres’ on a regular basis shortstop. San Diego began enjoying Merrill at different positions down the stretch, together with at first and second base and out in left subject. If he stays with the Padres into subsequent season — and, as Wooden and Gasser illustrate, you may by no means say for positive — he might start his professional profession in additional of a utility-starter function.
Since then, rather a lot has modified in regards to the Padres’ circumstances. Bogaerts is now the on a regular basis second baseman out of deference to Ha Seong Kim, and Merrill may start his profession as an outfielder. The general gist stays true: Merrill is a talented contact hitter with pull-side energy and the athleticism to be a very good glove at varied positions.
You do not have to take our phrase for any of this, both. Merrill has already proven sufficient this spring to persuade Tatis to publicly endorse him making the Opening Day roster as a part of a current ESPN broadcast. Tatis has since provided much more reward of Merrill, proving within the course of to be a talented hype man.
“He simply can play ball,” Tatis informed reporters. “He can play ball — like actual baseball, baseball that needs to be performed each single day. The man can play that sport. I see him hit, see him enjoying protection, see him operating the bases, and the man is gonna assist in each single space.”
2. Lack of nice alternate options
The previous saying about beginning quarterbacks is that when you have two of them then you definately even have none. We can’t get that pithy with the Padres’ outfield scenario, however take a look at the names above. They’ll safely be categorised as both journeyman sorts (Profar, Mercado, Locastro, Mitchell) or respectable, not nice prospects (Azocar, Marsee, Johnson). The guts of it’s that the Padres haven’t got numerous nice choices on paper.
Maybe it is no surprise then why, in response to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Padres stay open to including outfielders — as they did earlier this week, once they signed the aforementioned Locastro to a minor-league deal.
That considering might even entail a reunion with Tommy Pham, a member of the 2020-21 Padres. We ranked Pham because the thirty fourth greatest free agent getting into the winter on the premise of his above-average offensive manufacturing and glowing ball-tracking knowledge. If the Padres had been to signal Pham, that may nonetheless depart heart subject obtainable to Merrill. And if they do not, however they proceed to pursue exterior choices, the place may that lead Here’s a full checklist of the opposite unsigned outfielders who made our prime 50 rankings:
- Michael A. Taylor, No. 31
It would not be utterly correct to explain Taylor and Pham as polar opposites, however you’d be extra right than not. Taylor is an excellent defensive heart fielder coming off the perfect two-year stretch of his profession as a hitter. Sadly, two issues could be true without delay: Taylor hit about in addition to he is ever hit as a big-league participant, and the product of that comparatively good hitting span was a sub-.300 on-base share.
The Padres had been linked to Taylor earlier this 12 months. It is unclear which outfielder is extra prone to be part of San Diego’s roster. Both is a superb to good choice in their very own methods. If we needed to guess, although, we suspect the Padres can be out there so as to add solely one of many two, leaving a pathway for Merrill to safe a significant function. Why? Let’s segue.
3. Payroll issues
Understand that one of many causes the Padres traded Soto and allowed Hader and most of their rotation to go away in free company was the will to scale back bills. The Padres reportedly took out a mortgage late final 12 months to cowl payroll. Late proprietor Peter Seidler, who died over the offseason, could have been keen to run a deficit to win a hoop, however MLB has guidelines about debt compliance that each crew should oblige by.
Because it stands, the Padres are projected to have their lowest full-season Opening Day payroll because the 2019 marketing campaign — someplace round $160 million, in response to Baseball Prospectus’ Cot’s Contracts. Their luxurious tax quantity is considerably larger, nonetheless, checking in at $222 million. That leaves the Padres with lower than $15 million wiggle room between their present scenario and the tax line. Provided that they gutted chunks of their roster to drop bills, it is in all probability truthful to imagine the entrance workplace will do what they will to remain beneath the tax line this 12 months and reset their penalty.
Including another veteran outfielder would reduce into that quantity. Trying so as to add two would complicate sticking by that mission whereas making additional in-season additions.
In different phrases, the Padres have loads of motivation to offer Merrill a chance to make certainly one of their vacant outfield spots his personal.
